Earth is entering an era of accelerating climate change

Rising temperatures, record ocean heat, melting ice and increasingly disruptive extreme weather are changing the planet — while scientists warn that the next decade will be critical for understanding how far these transformations can go. 

FOSTER! NEWS | EARTH & CLIMATE
16 SEPTEMBER 2026

THE PLANET IS CHANGING FASTER THAN EXPECTED

Earth's climate has always changed.

But the current transformation is occurring at a speed and scale that scientists can measure across the atmosphere, oceans, ice and land.

The World Meteorological Organization's State of the Global Climate 2025 report confirmed that the eleven years from 2015 to 2025 were the eleven warmest years in the observational record. The organisation also found that Earth's energy imbalance reached its highest level in the 65-year observational record.

The changes are not confined to one region.

They are part of a global system.

And that system is accumulating heat.

2025 WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST YEARS EVER RECORDED 

The exact ranking varies slightly between scientific datasets.

NASA's analysis found that 2025 was effectively tied with 2023 within the margin of error, while 2024 remained the warmest year since instrumental records began in 1880. NASA calculated that 2025 was 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 average.

The WMO's consolidated analysis placed 2025 as the second or third warmest year on record, at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 average.

The difference between datasets does not change the broader picture.

The planet is continuing to warm.

THE OCEAN IS ABSORBING THE HEAT

The oceans are one of the most important components of the climate system.

They absorb enormous quantities of excess heat generated by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

According to the WMO, ocean heat content reached a record level in 2025.

The organisation estimates that during the past two decades, the ocean has absorbed the equivalent of roughly 18 times humanity's annual energy consumption each year.

This matters because warmer oceans influence atmospheric circulation, marine ecosystems, sea levels and extreme weather.

The ocean is not simply responding to climate change.

It is helping determine how the climate system evolves.

THE ICE IS TELLING ANOTHER PART OF THE STORY 

The world's frozen regions are also undergoing significant changes.

Arctic sea ice remained at or near record-low levels in 2025, while Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest extent in the observational record, according to the WMO. Glacier mass loss also continued.

Ice matters far beyond the polar regions.

Glaciers store freshwater.

Snow influences water supplies.

Sea ice affects ocean and atmospheric circulation.

And highly reflective ice surfaces help return solar energy to space.

As ice disappears, the physical characteristics of the planet change.

EXTREME WEATHER IS BECOMING A GLOBAL TEST 

Climate change does not mean that every weather event can be attributed directly to global warming.

But a warmer atmosphere and ocean can alter the conditions in which extreme events occur.

The WMO reported that 2025 brought major heatwaves, heavy rainfall and tropical cyclones that caused disruption and significant economic losses in different parts of the world.

For governments, the challenge is increasingly about resilience.

Cities must prepare for heat.

Infrastructure must withstand heavier rainfall.

Coastal communities must account for rising seas.

Agriculture must manage changing patterns of temperature and precipitation.

The climate question is therefore becoming an infrastructure question.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS PART OF A LARGER SYSTEM 

Climate change is sometimes reduced to a discussion about temperature.

The science is broader.

The atmosphere interacts continuously with:

• Oceans.
• Ice.
• Forests.
• Soils.
• Rivers.
• Ecosystems.
• Human societies.

A change in one part of the system can influence another.

This is why scientists monitor multiple indicators rather than relying on temperature alone.

The objective is to understand the entire Earth system.

GREENHOUSE GASES REMAIN AT THE CENTRE

Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are among the principal greenhouse gases driving long-term warming.

The WMO's 2025 climate assessment reported that concentrations of all three reached their highest levels in at least 800,000 years in 2024.

These gases absorb and re-emit infrared radiation, changing the energy balance of the atmosphere.

The result is a gradual accumulation of heat.

That physical process is fundamental to understanding modern climate change.

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS COULD BE CRITICAL 

The World Meteorological Organization's May 2026 Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update projects that global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels between 2026 and 2030.

The report estimates annual global mean temperatures in that period could range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average.

The WMO also estimates an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will be warmer than the current record year, 2024.

It estimates a 91% chance that at least one year in that period will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.

These are probabilities, not predictions of a permanent crossing.

But they demonstrate how close the climate system is operating to historically unusual levels.

THE 1.5°C THRESHOLD NEEDS CONTEXT 

The 1.5°C figure is frequently discussed as though it were a simple switch.

It is not.

A single year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average is different from a long-term warming level sustained over multiple decades.

Short-term variability, including phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, can influence annual temperatures.

That distinction is essential.

Climate science examines both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends.

The long-term trend remains clear: global temperatures are rising.

THE ARCTIC IS WARMING RAPIDLY

The Arctic is one of the regions where climate changes are particularly pronounced.

The WMO's 2026 outlook expects Arctic temperature anomalies to remain higher than the global average during the next five years.

Changes in the Arctic can have consequences far beyond the polar region.

Melting ice contributes to sea-level rise.

Changes in snow and sea ice influence the climate system.

And the opening of previously inaccessible areas is creating new economic and geopolitical questions.

The Arctic is simultaneously a scientific laboratory and a strategic frontier.

SEA-LEVEL RISE IS A LONG-TERM CHALLENGE 

Rising sea levels are another consequence of a warming planet.

Two major processes are involved.

The ocean expands as it warms.

And land-based ice contributes additional water as glaciers and ice sheets lose mass.

The effects accumulate over time.

For coastal cities, ports and low-lying communities, this creates a planning challenge that extends beyond individual weather events.

Infrastructure built today may have to operate under very different conditions decades from now.

BIODIVERSITY IS PART OF THE CLIMATE STORY 

Climate and biodiversity cannot be treated as completely separate issues.

Ecosystems absorb carbon, regulate water and provide food and other resources.

Forests, wetlands, grasslands, oceans and soils all play roles in the Earth system.

At the same time, changes in temperature, rainfall, ocean conditions and extreme events can put pressure on ecosystems.

The relationship works in both directions.

Protecting ecosystems can contribute to climate resilience.

Damaging them can reduce that resilience.

THE OCEANS ARE MORE THAN A CLIMATE BUFFER

The ocean absorbs carbon dioxide as well as heat.

That helps slow the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

But it also changes ocean chemistry.

Marine ecosystems are sensitive to temperature, acidity, oxygen levels and other environmental conditions.

Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to sustained marine heat.

Fisheries can also be affected as marine species respond to changing conditions.

The future of the ocean is therefore directly connected to food security, coastal economies and global biodiversity.

CLIMATE SCIENCE IS ALSO A DATA REVOLUTION 

Understanding the planet requires enormous amounts of information.

Weather stations.

Ocean buoys.

Ships.

Satellites.

Research aircraft.

Ice measurements.

Earth observation systems.

Computer models.

NASA's global temperature analysis, for example, incorporates measurements from more than 25,000 meteorological stations, together with data from ships, ocean buoys and Antarctic research stations.

Modern climate science is therefore increasingly dependent on global cooperation and advanced computing.

SATELLITES ARE WATCHING THE PLANET 

Earth observation satellites provide scientists with information that cannot be collected from the ground alone.

They can monitor:

• Ice coverage.
• Sea level.
• Ocean temperatures.
• Vegetation.
• Atmospheric composition.
• Clouds.
• Fires.
• Drought.
• Land-use changes.

This is transforming our ability to observe the planet as a single interconnected system.

The Earth is becoming measurable in unprecedented detail.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALSO AN ECONOMIC ISSUE 

The effects of climate change do not stop at the environment.

Extreme weather can damage infrastructure.

Floods can interrupt supply chains.

Heat can reduce labour productivity.

Drought can affect agriculture.

Storms can disrupt energy systems.

Coastal flooding can threaten property and transport networks.

The economic consequences therefore extend across multiple sectors.

Climate risk is increasingly becoming financial risk.

CITIES ARE ON THE FRONT LINE 

More than half of humanity lives in urban areas.

Cities concentrate people, infrastructure and economic activity.

That makes them particularly exposed to heatwaves, flooding, storms and other climate-related hazards.

Urban planning is consequently becoming part of climate adaptation.

Cities are investing in:

• Cooling strategies.
• Flood protection.
• Green spaces.
• Water management.
• Early-warning systems.
• More resilient infrastructure.

The question is increasingly not whether cities will experience climate stress.

It is how prepared they will be when it arrives.

EARLY WARNINGS CAN SAVE LIVES

Not every climate risk can be prevented.

But many impacts can be reduced through preparation.

Early-warning systems can give communities time to evacuate before floods or storms.

They can allow farmers to prepare for extreme weather.

They can help authorities respond to heatwaves.

The WMO has repeatedly emphasised the importance of expanding early-warning systems as extreme weather becomes a greater risk to societies.

Science therefore has a practical role.

Observation becomes information.

Information becomes warning.

Warning becomes preparation.

THE PLANET IS ALSO A LABORATORY 

Earth is not simply the environment in which humanity exists.

It is a vast natural laboratory.

Scientists study glaciers to understand past climate conditions.

Tree rings provide historical information.

Ice cores preserve atmospheric records.

Ocean sediments reveal changes over thousands of years.

Satellite observations reveal transformations occurring today.

Together, these sources allow scientists to reconstruct how the planet has changed — and to understand where it may be heading.

THE CHALLENGE IS NO LONGER ONLY UNDERSTANDING CHANGE 

Humanity now possesses an extraordinary ability to observe planetary change.

The harder question is what societies do with that information.

Governments must plan infrastructure.

Companies must evaluate risks.

Cities must adapt.

Scientists must continue improving projections.

Communities must prepare for hazards.

And international institutions must coordinate information across borders.

The science provides the evidence.

The response depends on decisions made by societies.

FOSTER! ANALYSES

Earth's climate is not changing through one isolated process.

It is a system responding to accumulated energy, greenhouse gases and interactions between atmosphere, ocean, ice and land.

The scientific measurements are becoming increasingly detailed.

The temperature record shows sustained warming.

The ocean is accumulating heat.

Ice is being lost.

Extreme weather continues to test infrastructure and communities.

And the next five years are expected to remain exceptionally warm.

But climate science is not only about recording what is happening.

It is also about understanding what comes next.

The satellites watching the planet.

The instruments measuring the oceans.

The researchers studying ice.

The models projecting future conditions.

The early-warning systems protecting communities.

All form part of the same effort:

to understand a changing planet before its changes become impossible to ignore.

The Earth is not simply warming.

It is becoming a more closely observed, more interconnected and more consequential scientific frontier.

The future of the planet is being measured today.

The question is what humanity will do with what the science reveals.

FOSTER! NEWS
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